Intermediate Moneyline Strategy

Learn EV calculations, line-shading detection, and arbitrage techniques for moneyline betting.

Intermediate Moneyline Strategy

You know how to read a moneyline. Now let's dive into EV calculations, line-shading detection, and a touch of arbitrage.

1. Expected Value (EV) Deep-Dive

Calculate EV on every wager:

EV = (P × Profit) – ((1 – P) × Stake)

Where:

  • P = your estimated win probability
  • Profit = payout – stake
  • Stake = money risked

Only place bets where EV > 0. Over hundreds of bets, positive EV wins.

2. "Sharp" vs. "Square" Money

  • Square money (casual bettors) often backs favorites, inflating lines.
  • Sharp money (professional action) moves lines before tip-off.

Watch for lines drifting toward the public; fade heavy line movement without new news—odds are being "shaded."

3. Shopping for the Sweet Spot

  • Juice comparisons: an –110 vs. –105 difference saves 4.5% on your risk.
  • Tiny line splits: picking +152 over +150 may seem minor but compounds across bets.
  • Multi-book accounts: maintain 4–6 books to exploit every fractional shift.

4. Cross-Sport Arbitrage

When two books differ enough, you can lock in profit:

Book A: Team X +100 (EVL = 50%)  
Book B: Team X –105 (EVL = 51.2%)

Stake proportionally so that any outcome returns same payout. Use an odds API to scan skies for 1–2% arbitrage windows—small but risk-free.

5. Staking Beyond Flat Bets

  • Proportional: Stake = bank × (edge ÷ odds)
  • Poisson Kelly: advanced but powerful—feeds off your model's P and the line's implied P.

Pro Tip: Maintain a live dashboard (even a simple spreadsheet) logging EV, odds, and stakes. Review weekly to weed out negative-EV habits.

Wrapping Up

Mastering moneylines at an intermediate level means chasing EV relentlessly, exploiting line divergences, and fine-tuning your staking model. Keep your edge small, but compound it relentlessly.