Intermediate Point Spread Strategy

Once you understand how spreads work, the next step is understanding when to bet them and how to find edges. This means tracking key numbers, building your own power ratings, and recognizing when the market is slow to react.

Key Numbers in NBA Spreads

Not all numbers are created equal. Some margins happen way more often than others.

In the NBA, the most common winning margins are:

• 3 points (buzzer-beater three, intentional fouls)
• 5-7 points (competitive game, one team pulls ahead late)
• 10-12 points (solid win, not a blowout)

When you're betting spreads, getting the right side of a key number is huge.

Example:

• You can bet Warriors -6.5 at one book
• Or Warriors -7.5 at another book

If you're betting the Warriors, you want -6.5. If they win by 7, you win at -6.5 but push at -7. The difference between -6.5 and -7.5 is worth about 4-5% in win probability.

This is why line shopping matters. Half a point sounds small but it adds up over hundreds of bets.

Middling: Betting Both Sides

A middle is when you bet both sides of a game at different lines and can win both bets if the final margin lands in a specific range.

Example:

• On Monday, you bet Celtics -4.5 at -110
• By Friday, the line moves to Celtics -7.5
• You bet the opponent +7.5 at -110

If the Celtics win by 5, 6, or 7 points, you win both bets. If they win by 4 or less, you win the underdog bet. If they win by 8+, you win the favorite bet.

The only way you lose both is if the line doesn't move at all—but you already got the line movement, so worst case you're splitting the bets.

Middles are rare, but when you see a 2.5+ point move, it's worth checking if you can construct one.

Building Basic Power Ratings

Power ratings are just a way to estimate how good each team is on a neutral floor. The simplest version:

1. Start with each team's point differential (points scored minus points allowed per game)
2. Adjust for strength of schedule
3. Add home court advantage (~2.5 points in the NBA)

Example:

• Bucks average +8.5 point differential
• Suns average +4.2 point differential
• Difference: 4.3 points
• Game is in Phoenix (Suns +2.5 home court)

Your line: Bucks -1.8 on a neutral floor, but it's in Phoenix, so Suns +0.7.

If the market has Bucks -3, there might be value on the Suns.

This is oversimplified—real power ratings account for pace, recent performance, injuries, etc.—but it's a starting point.

More Advanced: Regression Models

If you're comfortable with basic stats, you can build a regression model to predict margin of victory.

Key inputs:

• Offensive/defensive efficiency (points per 100 possessions)
• Pace (possessions per game)
• Rest days
• Home/away
• Recent performance (last 10 games weighted heavier)

Run a linear regression where the dependent variable is margin of victory. Your model will spit out a predicted spread. Compare that to the market spread.

If your model says Celtics -8 and the market says Celtics -5, that's a 3-point edge (if you trust your model).

Situational Betting

Not all games are created equal. Context matters.

Look-ahead games: A team plays the Warriors on Friday and the Pelicans on Wednesday. The market might undervalue the Warriors because bettors assume the team is looking ahead to the Pelicans game.

Revenge games: Team A got blown out by Team B earlier in the season. When they play again, Team A might be extra motivated. The market sometimes undervalues this.

Schedule spots: A team on the second night of a back-to-back, especially traveling from a different time zone, is at a disadvantage. The market knows this, but sometimes doesn't price it in fully.

Playoff implications: A team fighting for a playoff spot vs. a team that's already eliminated. Motivation matters.

These aren't automatic bets, but they're things to watch for.

Understanding Line Movement

Lines move for two reasons:

1. Sharp money (professionals betting large amounts)
2. Public money (casual bettors betting in high volume)

If 80% of bets are on the Lakers but the line moves toward the opponent, that's sharp money on the other side. Books respect sharp action more than public action.

You can track this with betting percentage data (some sites publish this). If the line moves against the public, it's usually worth paying attention.

Teasers: Buying Points Across Multiple Games

A teaser lets you adjust the spread in your favor across multiple games, but at reduced odds.

Example (6-point teaser in NBA):

• Celtics -8.5 becomes Celtics -2.5
• Warriors -7 becomes Warriors -1

You need both to cover. If they do, you win at reduced odds (usually around -110 for a 2-team teaser).

Teasers are profitable if you're crossing key numbers (like moving from -7.5 to -1.5 in the NBA). Otherwise, you're giving up too much juice.

Tracking Your Bets

If you're serious about betting spreads, you need to track:

• ATS record by team (some teams consistently under/overperform their spreads)
• Your own performance by bet type (are you better at favorites or underdogs? home or away?)
• Margin of victory (did you lose by 1 point or 20? Losing by 1 is bad luck, losing by 20 is a bad read)

After 100+ bets, you'll see patterns. Maybe you're great at betting home underdogs but terrible at road favorites. Lean into what works.