Moneyline Betting Basics

Moneyline bets are the simplest type of wager: pick who you think will win. No point spreads, no totals. Just straight up—who wins the game?

How to Read Moneyline Odds

The numbers you see tell you two things: who's favored and how much you stand to win or lose.

Negative odds (-): This team is favored. The number shows how much you need to bet to win $100. So at -150, you risk $150 to win $100.

Positive odds (+): This team is the underdog. The number shows how much you'd win if you bet $100. At +200, you bet $100 and win $200.

Why Bet Moneylines?

They're clean. No overthinking whether a team will cover a spread by half a point. Either they win or they don't.

This makes moneylines good for:

• Games with a clear favorite you trust
• Building parlays (combining multiple bets)
• Underdogs you think have a real shot

Understanding Implied Probability

Every moneyline has an "implied probability"—what the oddsmakers think each team's chance of winning is.

For Lakers at -180: $P = \frac{180}{180 + 100} = 64.3\%$

For Spurs at +150: $P = \frac{100}{150 + 100} = 40\%$

Notice these don't add to 100%. The difference (about 4.3%) is the vig—the sportsbook's cut.

If you think the Spurs actually have a 45% chance to win but they're priced at 40%, that's where you might have an edge.

Practical Example

Let's say the Lakers are -180 and the Spurs are +150.

Betting $100 on the Spurs: If they win, you get $250 total ($150 profit + your $100 back).

Betting $180 on the Lakers: If they win, you get $280 total ($100 profit + your $180 back).

The Lakers are heavily favored, so you need to risk more to win less. The Spurs are underdogs—higher risk, but a bigger payout if they pull it off.

A Few Things to Keep in Mind

Shop around. Different sportsbooks offer different odds. Lakers might be -180 at one book and -175 at another. That adds up over time.

Don't chase favorites. Betting a team at -400 means you need to win 80% of the time just to break even. Those margins are brutal.

Home underdogs can surprise you. Teams playing at home with plus odds tend to perform better than the line suggests. Not always, but enough to pay attention.

Quick Math Check

Let's say you bet the Lakers at -180 ten times with $180 each time. You need to win at least 7 times to break even:

• 7 wins: $700 profit
• 3 losses: -$540

Net: $160 profit over 10 bets. But if you only win 6 times, you lose money.

That's why implied probability matters. You need to win more often than the odds suggest to be profitable long-term.